How The Philippines makes the Invasion of Taiwan so difficult: The Bashi Channel

Driven by worry about China’s aggression, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted the most muscular foreign policy approach that the Philippines has seen in close to a decade.

A monument at the boardwalk in Subic Bay, once home to the largest American military base outside of the United States, commemorates the date U.S. soldiers left the Philippines.Credit...Jes Aznar for The New York Times








For years, the Philippines largely stood by as Chinese forces rammed its fishing vessels and occupied the reefs and shoals that once belonged to the Southeast Asian nation.

Those days may soon be over.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in June, has adopted the most muscular foreign policy approach that the Philippines has seen in close to a decade. He is seeking out alliances, restoring his country’s defense ties with the United States and prioritizing his country’s territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.

Earlier this month, Mr. Marcos agreed to grant the United States military access to four new defense sites in the Philippines. On the same day, Washington said it would restart its joint patrols of the South China Sea with the Philippines, which had been suspended by Manila for six years. There is speculation that Subic Bay, a crown jewel among the many naval sites in Philippines, will also welcome American soldiers in the coming months.

Mr. Marcos’s decisions have largely been driven by the territorial dispute that the Philippines has with Beijing over the South China Sea. But he has also shared concerns about a possible Chinese invasion of the self-ruled island of Taiwan, saying that “it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved.”


One mistake China made was being too aggressive in SCS, especially with the Philippines. The PH was already distancing itself from the US, starting as far as the 90s during the shutdown of US naval and air bases in the PH. They are really trying to be neutral and independent, until now. Even the recent president tried warming up with China (and was really hostile with the US) but to no avail. Now, even the doves and anti-US politicians in the Philippines are losing their influence on the general population. It's hard to imagine having 4 new US bases (temporary and limited) in the PH, especially before the SCS issue, there's no way the PH government can get away with that. The Filipinos are fearful and angry and now returning to their oldest ally. They know war is inevitable especially when Chinese bases are just a couple of miles away from their homes, locals hear sounds of explosions and see the silhouette of Chinese ships from their shores, and their fishermen are told to scurry away by the Chinese coast guard. And even now as of writing, the PH president is in the US, strengthening their alliance. If only China left the PH alone with their sea territories, the PH will not have to resort to allowing a substantial US military presence in their country. They would have an easier time with Taiwan, with a neutral PH. I won't be surprised if the PH in the future will agree to give the US, proper and permanent bases, let's say reopening the Subic Naval Base (the largest US naval base back then in Asia) and the Clark Air Base.